201 Stephenson Parkway, Suite 2100 Norman, OK 73019

Understanding Uncertainty

Toward Stakeholder Understanding of Product Sensitivities & Uncertainties

Robust design and resilient planning for climate variability/change typically require climate-related products from observations, modeling, and scenarios that currently have undocumented sensitivities and uncertainties. Better understanding of the roots of these uncertainties helps to guide how (or whether) decision makers use a given product and how to make revisions as new information becomes available. This knowledge is especially critical where precipitation varies substantially in both time and space and where competition for natural resources influence and complicate the resilience planning efforts of governments and other resource management groups.

Our Team

Jill Trepanier (co-lead), Louisiana State University

Jennifer Bryant, Chickasaw Nation

Adrienne Wootten (co-lead), University of Oklahoma

Irenea Lodangco, University of Oklahoma

John Neilson-Gammon, Texas A&M University

Joseph Ripberger, University of Oklahoma

Our Projects

Miletstones & Next Steps for 2022

December 2021 – January 2022 – Recruit a social scientist with a background in risk and uncertainty to assist in survey development, dissemination, and analysis

April 2022 – The finished survey is disseminated to CASC stakeholders and partners (pending any necessary IRB approvals).

Spring-Summer 2022 – Beginning website design for understanding uncertainty and best practices (tentatively to be hosted on SCCASC website).

Summer 2022 – Analysis of survey results

Late Summer 2022 – Beginning recorded interviews with CASC stakeholders and partners, along with climate modeling experts, on how each group considers the uncertainty in climate projections

Fall 2022 – Website development

Fall Science Meeting 2022 – Initial website finished for demonstration and feedback

While a manuscript is not a goal of the Uncertainty CoP, we recognize that the survey results and analysis may be incorporated into a manuscript related to the goals above.

Miletstones & Next Steps for 2021

We are now developing a website to house resource materials (documents, videos, interviews, etc.) as a resource for both scientists eager to communicate uncertainty effectively and stakeholders to understand the types of uncertainty inherent in climate projections and scientific statements. Over the next few months, we’ll be working out ideas for the website, ideally with a prototype and sample content developed over the next few months.