201 Stephenson Parkway, Suite 2100 Norman, OK 73019

Understanding Uncertainty

Toward Stakeholder Understanding of Product Sensitivities & Uncertainties

Robust design and resilient planning for climate variability/change typically require climate-related products from observations, modeling, and scenarios that currently have undocumented sensitivities and uncertainties. Better understanding of the roots of these uncertainties helps to guide how (or whether) decision makers use a given product and how to make revisions as new information becomes available. This knowledge is especially critical where precipitation varies substantially in both time and space and where competition for natural resources influence and complicate the resilience planning efforts of governments and other resource management groups.

Our Team

Jill Trepanier (co-lead), Louisiana State University

Jennifer Bryant, Chickasaw Nation

Adrienne Wootten (co-lead), University of Oklahoma

Irenea Lodangco, University of Oklahoma

John Nielson-Gammon, Texas A&M University

Joseph Ripberger, University of Oklahoma

Our Projects

Next Steps for 2023

Analysis of survey results

Refinement of interview questions and performing interviews

Production of Mock Website for the Fall Science Meeting in 2023.

Miletstones & Next Steps for 2022

December 2021 – January 2022 – Expanded team with social scientist to assist in analysis.

Summer 2022 – Finished survey disseminated to CASC stakeholders

Fall 2022 – development of interview questions

Fall Science Meeting 2022 – Discussed website development and conducted initial interviews

While a manuscript is not a goal of the Uncertainty CoP, we recognize that the survey results and analysis may be incorporated into a manuscript related to the goals above.

Miletstones & Next Steps for 2021

We are producing analysis and developing a website to house resource materials (documents, videos, interviews, etc.) as a resource for both scientists eager to communicate uncertainty effectively and stakeholders to understand the types of uncertainty inherent in climate projections and scientific statements.