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Temperature Projections

We expect temperatures across our region to increase in the future. How much of an increase is dependent upon the actions society takes today and over the next decade. Below is a selection of our temperature-based climate projections for the south-central U.S. for mid-century (2036-2065) and end-of-century (2070-2099). Additional temperature-based climate projections are available upon request.

To learn more about how these projections were created, check out our overview webinar on YouTube: https://youtu.be/qlfMKX0z7gI

Please use this citation for the graphics below: Dixon K.W., A.M. Wootten, M.J. Nath, J. Lanzante,  D.J. Adams-Smith, C.E. Whitlock, C.F. Gait├ín, R.A. McPherson, 2020: South Central Climate Projections Evaluation Project (C-PrEP), South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Norman, Oklahoma, USA. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21429/12gk-dh47  


Mid-Century (2036-2065)


Low Scenario

With a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, we expect average high temperatures to generally increase by more than 2 degrees (F) by mid-century.

High Scenario

Without a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, we expect a larger increase of high temperature. In general, average high temperatures are projected to be more than 5 degrees (F) warmer by mid-century. 


Low Scenario

With a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, we expect to experience an increase of 11 very hot days annually, on average, by mid-century.

High Scenario

Without a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, we expect an average of 24 more 100-degree days annually by mid-century.  


Low Scenario

With a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, we expect to experience an increase of 2 heatwaves per year, on average, by mid-century.

High Scenario

Without a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, 4 more heatwaves are expected, on average, by end-of-century.


Low Scenario

With a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, we expect average low temperatures to generally increase by more than 2 degrees (F) by mid-century.

High Scenario

Without a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, we expect a larger increase of low temperature. In general, average low temperatures are projected to be 5 degrees (F) warmer by mid-century.  


Low Scenario

With a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, we expect to experience a decrease of 13 freeze days annually, on average, by mid-century.

High Scenario

Without a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, the expected decrease of freeze days will be greater, with 26 fewer days annually, on average, by mid-century.


End-of-Century (2070-2099)


Low Scenario

With a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, we expect an increase in the average high temperatures by generally more than 2 degrees (F) by end-of-century.

High Scenario

Without a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, we expect a larger increase of high temperature. In general, average high temperatures are projected to to be more than 8 degrees (F) warmer by end-of-century.


Low Scenario

With a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, we expect to experience an increase of 8 very hot days annually, on average, by end-of-century.

High Scenario

Without a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, the expected increase of very hot days to be greater, with 52 more days annually, on average, by end-of-century.  


Low Scenario

With a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, we expect to experience an increase of 2 heatwaves per year, on average, by end-of-century.

High Scenario

Without a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, 5 more heatwaves are expected, on average, by end-of-century.


Low Scenario

With a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, we expect an increase in the average low temperatures by generally more than 2 degrees (F) by end-of-century.

High Scenario

Without a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, we expect a larger increase of low temperature. In general, average low temperatures are projected to to be more than 8 degrees (F) warmer by end-of-century.


Low Scenario

With a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, we expect to experience a decrease of 12 freeze days annually, on average, by end-of-century.

High Scenario

Without a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, the expected decrease of freeze days will be greater, with 41 fewer days annually, on average, by end-of-century.